It's about that time of year when we act like we know what we're talking about, and end up looking completely idiotic at the end of yet another NFL season. Bearing that in mind, I've still agreed to preview both the AFC and NFC North. This is, of course, the AFC section of the preview.
Here's how I think the teams in this division will finish, and why:
Pittsburgh - 12-4
The Steelers just keep chugging along, and win this division again this year. There's no reason for Roethlesberger to decline in any way, and his receivers have just gotten younger and faster with the addition of Limus Sweed to the depth chart. Add that to the fact that they've got one of the best young running backs in Willie Parker, and an annually powerful defense, and you've got one great team--yet again.
Cleveland - 11-5
Things haven't changed enough for the Browns for me to believe they'll finish any higher or any lower than they did last year. The addition of Donte' Stallworth will certainly keep defenses honest, and he may benefit from double teams of Braylon Edwards and safety help on Kellen Winslow. Look out for a possible big year from Stallworth.
It also never hurts to have a diamond-in-the-rough quarterback in Derek Anderson, who emerged as the clear-cut starter last year--and only has more experience to bring to the table this year. They're good, and most of their difficult opponents will come at home--but I still can't see them taking the division.
Cincinnati - 7-9
The offense will carry them to several wins, but their defense will bring them down in even more losses. Ocho Cinco and Housh is a quarterback's dream, and a healthy Rudi Johnson is almost as good as you can get. On the other side of the ball, none of their defensive players are anything special except (possibly) Dexter Jackson. Every year they put up metric pant-loads of points, but the defense consistently lets them down. I can't see that changing much this year.
Baltimore - 6-10
Honestly, they're the absolute opposite of Cincinnati--a defense can only take you so far. If Troy Smith becomes the starter (and I think he should), the offense might perform a little better given his ability to move (which you need, when you have the receiving options that are available in Baltimore) when there is nobody open--he can make something out of nothing, which I have a feeling will need to be done in excess this year in Baltimore. The bright spot of this offense is Willis McGahee, but he is, again, fighting the injury bug, and can't be expected to stay healthy for a whole year.
Again, a defense can only take you so far when you can't score points for them. However, if McGahee stays healthy and Smith gets called on as the starter, they could potentially finish above the Bengals--but for now, they stay last in this preview.
That's my take on the AFC North for this year. Feel free to tell me how stupid I am, but I'm not sure how much it will change about my outlook on the season for these teams.
Note: I just realized these are the same standings as last year--and with a division that typically plays pretty close and fluctuates consistently, I'm not sure how accurate this will turn out to be. Oh, well, I gave it a shot.
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2 comments:
For the most part, Tim's assessment of the AFC North is very reasonable. However I do think the Steelers and Bengals are both over-rated and under-rated respectively. To begin, the Steelers have been given the toughest schedule of any team in the league this year. They're opponents include Cleveland twice, an improving Houstan Texans and Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville, the Superbowl Champion NY G-men, a very formidable Washington Redskins, then in a five week span they face off against arguably the four best teams in the league; The Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, New England Patriots, and Dallas Cowboys. Although I ultimately believe the Steelers do take the divison, it is possible that they could end up with the same overall record as the Cleveland Browns or worse. I'm going to give them 11 wins this year with them losing to Cleveland at least once, the Patriots, Chargers, and Jacksonville. They could also lose to the Colts and Cowboys, but I feel they will pull those games out at home. Somewhere along the road though they will be tired from consistently playing the best teams in the league week in and week out and will lose a game we all thought they should win, i.e. @Tennessee week 16. The steelers could finish as bad as 9-7 if they turn out to be worse than we believed, although I have them going 11-5 to take the division.
I agree with Cleveland going 11-5 and Baltimore right in that 6 win range, but I think Cincinnati will show improvement this year over the past few. Cinci bolstered up their defense this offseason with the addition of Antwaan Odom to the defensive line and first round draft choice Keith Rivers added to the linebacker core. Odell Thurman is also back with the team after being reinstated by the Commish. I think we see a better Cinci defense this year as Thurman is a Pro-Bowl quality linebacker and Odom and Rivers will both beef up this defense. The Cinci offense drastically under-performed in 2007 averaging only 15 points and 282 yards a game(only 171 through the air). We can expect the likes of Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, and T.J. Housh to drastically improve on last years' less then adequate performance. Rudi Johnson already appears to have injury problems in the preseason, but with former first round pick Chris Perry back healthy and Kenny Watson waiting in the wings, I see no reason why this offense can't come back to life and be in the top ten. Overall for the season I see the Bengals winning a total of 9 games, with the potential to surprise us all and possibly win 10. Call me crazy, but just wait and see.
Thanks for the input, Choor. I also forgot that Thurman wasn't in prison anymore. I think something like 7 of the Bengals still are, though.
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