Honestly. How many times can one team win a game in the bottom of the ninth by one run? How many rabbits' feet can one team possibly have?Sure, the 3.78 ERA probably has something to do with that, but with 690 runs and 611 runs against (79 differential), that argument loses water quickly, especially when our Red Sox have 799 runs and 634 runs against (165 differential--3.92 ERA, .282 BA [best in the AL]). Logic states that the team with the 165 run differential should be ahead of the team with the 79 run differential. Not only that, but the Blue Jays have a better ERA and a better team batting average than the Rays. They even have a better run differential. They are statistically superior, and are somehow in fourth place in the division. But do you want to know the Tampa Bay Rays secret weapon?
Luck. And a metric buttload of it. Last night? Lucky. The night Tito mysteriously trusted Mike Timlin (who is a good guy, but not so much a good pitcher [anymore]) in a tie game? Lucky. 89-0 in 1 run games? Lucky. OK, so that last one was made up, but it's close. They're just too damn lucky, and it's annoying me. This has to catch up with them eventually, right?
Maybe I just feel robbed, because Beckett was pitching an absolute GEM until the pride of my own university, Carlos Pena, took him deep to the opposite field. Then, Mr. Jamaica Masterson takes the mound, and I'm thinking that this game is going into extras. But noooo, the Rays put on their lucky thongs in the middle of the ninth and emerge victorious in the bottom of the ninth, by one run, yet again.But the truth is, the Rays have been doing this to everyone, all year. Everyone goes into the ninth thinking they've got the game all sewn up, and some random bench player who was called up from single-A two days earlier hits a leadoff home run off of Jonathan Papelbon to tie the game in the ninth, completely nullifying Jason Bay's go-ahead shot in the eighth. Alright, that hasn't been happening to everyone all year, but that basic story has been--just substitute the names out.
I don't know how long the luck will last for this team, but I sure as hell hope it runs out before it did for the 2004 Red Sox.
1 comment:
I don't care to look up the exact stats on baseball-reference.com, but the Rays have been terribly lucky in one run games.
A few times a week I look at their box score, and usually have trouble recognizing at least 3 players in the Tampa line up. Who are these guys?
I also don't care how many "do you believe now?" articles Jayson stark writes on ESPN.com about the Tampa Bay DEVIL Rays, I still don't believe. I think the Red Sox still take the division.
Over the course of time talent is greater than luck. Yeah for one game anything can happen, as evidenced in the-game-that-I-hate-to-talk-about, but the luck has got to run out eventually.
...or maybe I'm just in denial
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